The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Leading Off
● House: The House Majority PAC, a top Democratic super PAC, just announced that it’s booked $146 million worth of fall TV time, an amount larger than all of its general election expenditures in 2022 combined. Comparable initial outlays totaled $86 million last cycle and $51 million in 2018.
The move also makes HMP the first of the “big four” groups that spend heavily on House races to announce ad reservations this year. It’s only a matter of time, though, before HMP’s allies at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is the Democrats’ official campaign arm, take similar steps. The Democrats’ GOP rivals, the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund—who are themselves sometimes rivals—also won’t be far behind.
As is often the case, HMP has broken down its reservations by media market rather than by congressional district. That’s because television advertising can only be booked market by market. But since the geographic regions served by particular TV stations rarely correspond with political boundaries (and vice versa), many of these bookings could apply to multiple races.
Fortunately, we can fill in the gaps with our previously published guide showing which districts are in which media markets. We’ve used that to compile a spreadsheet indicating the likely districts HMP either intends to defend or hopes to flip across the 50 markets it plans to get involved in.
Some of these are a certainty. The only competitive seat that occupies a sizable chunk of the Portland, Maine, media market is Maine’s 2nd, red-leaning turf held by Democrat Rep. Jared Golden. But Portland, Oregon, covers all of Oregon’s 6th as well as most of Oregon’s 5th and Washington’s 3rd. We’ve therefore listed all three of these seats (two Democratic holds and one pickup opportunity in the 5th District) on the corresponding line.
In the case of these multi-district markets, we won’t know which race will benefit until the spending actually happens, and that won’t be until late summer at the earliest. HMP (or any similarly situated organization) can wait to decide how to allocate its funds based on how it believes individual contests are shaping up. And much like a reservation at a restaurant, a TV reservation can be canceled altogether—something we see from time to time when a PAC or party committee gives up on a race or feels extremely confident.
We’ll keep updating our spreadsheet tracking House ad reservations throughout the year as the rest of the “big four” jump in, so bookmark it today.
1Q Fundraising
- NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): $1.5 million raised, $3.5 million cash on hand; Nella Domenici (R): $750,000 raised (plus $500,000 self-funded)
- NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): $5 million raised, $13.2 million cash on hand
- AZ-01: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): $750,000 raised, $2.45 million cash on hand
- NH-01: Chris Pappas (D-inc): $625,000 raised, $1.75 million cash-on-hand
- NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D-inc): $1.4 million raised, $18 million cash-on-hand
- WI-03: Rebecca Cooke (D): $490,000 raised
Senate
● MT-Sen: In response to a lengthy investigative report by the Washington Post’s Liz Goodwin, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy claims he made up a story about getting shot in the arm at a national park in 2015 in order to conceal his failure to report an alleged bullet wound he received in Afghanistan three years earlier in a possible incident of friendly fire.
Sheehy, who is the GOP front-runner to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, went to a hospital to receive treatment for an apparent injury after a family trip to Glacier National Park, where he told a park ranger he’d been hurt when his revolver went off after being dropped.
However, Goodwin’s piece raises many questions about Sheehy’s assertions. In particular, a military policy expert she consulted said it would be “highly unlikely that a civilian hospital would report a years-old bullet wound to the Navy” and added that Sheehy would have little reason to be worried that he might trigger a probe by explaining his old injury to hospital staff.
In addition, a firearms specialist told Goodwin it would have been “very unlikely” that Sheehy’s gun would have discharged as a result of being dropped. The entire article explores many other inconsistencies in Sheehy’s story and is well worth a read.
Governors
● ND-Gov: North Dakota Republicans unanimously endorsed Rep. Kelly Armstrong to succeed retiring Gov. Doug Burgum at their convention over the weekend after the only other major candidate, Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller, skipped the proceedings as planned. Miller, however, has Burgum’s endorsement and said she plans to focus on winning the June 11 Republican primary.
Democrats, meanwhile, united behind state Sen. Merrill Piepkorn at their gathering, which was held at the same time. Piepkorn, who is also known for his career as a country singer and radio host, is the only candidate seeking his party’s nomination.
● NJ-Gov: Former Republican state Sen. Ed Durr, who toppled one of the state Senate’s most powerful Democrats in a massive 2021 upset only to lose his seat two years later, tells the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein he isn’t ruling out a bid for governor next year. Durr, an unknown truck driver who ran a penniless campaign, shocked the New Jersey political world when he ousted Senate President Steve Sweeney by a 52-48 margin, but Democratic Assemblyman John Burzichelli unseated him 53-47 last fall.
House
● CO-03: Two Republicans hoping to succeed Rep. Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s 3rd District secured spots on the June 25 primary ballot after securing enough support at a local party gathering on Friday, though they could be joined by others.
Candidates can make it onto the ballot in one of three ways: They can try to qualify at their party’s convention, in which case they need the votes of at least 30% of delegates; they can submit 1,500 voter signatures; or they can opt for a hybrid route, which requires them to win at least 10% of the delegate vote and also file signatures. Anyone who chooses the third option but fails to hit the 10% mark can’t advance to the primary no matter how many signatures they collect.
Two candidates who eschewed the signature-gathering process managed to make it through door No. 1. State Board of Education member Stephen Varela won the votes of 34% of delegates, earning him the top position on the ballot, while former state Rep. Ron Hanks finished just behind with 32%. Meanwhile, a third candidate, financial adviser Russ Andrews, took 18%, so he’ll need his signatures to pass muster with election officials.
Three minor candidates who went the convention-only route saw their campaigns end on Friday, while at least four hopefuls are relying solely on signatures, including attorney Jeff Hurd. Democrats, meanwhile, will nominate former Aspen city councilor Adam Frisch, who was the party’s nominee against Boebert in 2022 and is the only Democrat running this year.
● FL-13: A new survey from St. Pete Polls finds Republican Rep. Vern Buchanan with a dominant 64-13 lead on private school founder Eddie Speir, who is challenging him in the Aug. 20 GOP primary. Speir has self-funded at least $500,000, but Buchanan is one of the richest members of Congress, with a reported net worth of more than $100 million as of 2020.
● FL-15: Two Florida Republicans who were running for other offices have heeded Donald Trump’s call to challenge freshman Rep. Laurel Lee in the 15th Congressional District, a Tampa-area seat that supported Trump by a narrow 51-48 margin in 2020.
Businessman James Judge had been running against GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis in the neighboring 15th District just to the north but has now set his sights on Lee, who earned Trump’s ire for initially endorsing Gov. Ron DeSantis’ bid for president. Last cycle, Judge ran against Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in the solidly blue 14th District but lost 57-43.
Meanwhile, Navy veteran Brian Perras, who took all of 4% against Bilirakis in last cycle’s primary, dropped his campaign for supervisor of elections in Pasco County to also pile in against Lee. (In 2020, Perras ran for Congress in California and fared poorly.) Several other Republicans, including two notorious far-right trolls, are also considering bids, while Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp recently jumped in for Democrats.
● NC-13: Donald Trump has endorsed former federal prosecutor Brad Knott over wealthy attorney Kelly Daughtry in the May 14 Republican primary runoff for North Carolina’s open 13th District. Daughtry led Knott 27-19 in the first round of voting last month, but she fell short of the 30% she would have needed to avoid a runoff.
● ND-AL: The North Dakota GOP’s convention went haywire on Saturday when backers of former state Rep. Rick Becker, who’d been disqualified from seeking the party’s endorsement, nevertheless wrote his name in on their ballots, preventing any other candidate from winning the necessary majority.
Becker had been barred from participating in the endorsement process because he ran against Republican Sen. John Hoeven in 2022, winning 18% of the vote as an independent. But around 380 Becker supporters nonetheless cast invalid ballots on his behalf, depriving Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak of the endorsement despite leading former State Department official Alex Balazs 44-29 in the first round of voting.
Some disgruntled Becker fans appeared to shift to Balazs in the second round, which saw him edge out Fedorchak 49.7 to 49.2. This time, there were only 13 spoiled ballots, but it was enough to keep the party from endorsing Balazs. That prompted Fedorchak to withdraw from consideration, handing the prize to Balazs. (Fedorchak had won Hoeven’s backing in the run-up to the convention.)
However, all three contenders will face off again in the June 11 primary for the right to succeed Rep. Kelly Armstrong, who is running for governor. The winner will face Marine Corps vet Trygve Hammer, who is the only declared Democrat and earned his party’s endorsement over the weekend without any drama.
● TN-05: Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston formally kicked off her challenge to Rep. Andy Ogles on Friday afternoon, a day after the state’s candidate filing deadline. Johnston had previously expressed interest in a possible bid but filed paperwork without any fanfare.
In a statement launching her campaign, she called Ogles “a totally ineffective politician who’s getting nothing done,” and in an accompanying video, she accused the incumbent of being “mired in scandals.” That’s likely a reference to reporting by local journalists exposing Ogles for fabricating much of his personal biography, including claims that he had hunted down international sex criminals.
● WI-08: Donald Trump on Sunday pre-endorsed Tony Wied, the former owner of a dinosaur-themed chain of gas stations, prompting Wied to tweet that he would launch his bid for Wisconsin’s open 8th Congressional District on Monday evening. Another would-be candidate, political consultant Alex Bruesewitz, also gave his backing to Wied, saying he would join the campaign as “an informal adviser.”
Trump further exhorted former state Sen. Roger Roth to drop out of the GOP primary, calling him a “RINO” and “a ‘clone’ of Paul Ryan.” Roth responded he would “win this race and help win Wisconsin for Donald Trump this November.” State Sen. Andre Jacque is also seeking the Republican nod.
● WI-01: Former Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan said on Monday that he’s considering seeking the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District. Sheridan was elected speaker in 2009 but lost reelection the following year in a major upset on the same night Democrats lost their majority. He attempted an unsuccessful comeback in 2014 when he ran for a seat in the state Senate but finished third in the Democratic primary.
Sheridan acknowledged to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Lawrence Andrea that a primary against another former Assembly leader, Peter Barca, would be “challenging.” Barca is also weighing a bid and told the Journal Sentinel that the DCCC “has for months encouraged” him to jump into the race.
Ad Roundup
- MD-Sen: Angela Alsobrooks (D)
- WV-Gov: Black Bear PAC (anti-Chris Miller (R))