The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast
Leading Off
● NC-13: A Republican running in a hotly contested runoff for an open House seat in North Carolina is about to find out whether her lead in the polls can withstand Donald Trump weighing in for her opponent.
Attorney Kelly Daughtry just released an early April internal poll giving her a wide 51-32 lead over former federal prosecutor Brad Knott in the May 14 runoff for the 13th District. Daughtry ought to be pleased because that represents a sizable improvement from her 41-37 edge in an unreleased March poll that was, like this latest survey, also conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.
But unfortunately for Daughtry, this newer poll was in the field mere days before Trump endorsed Knott on Truth Social. Trump also used his social media missive to blast Daughtry as someone who “has given money to Far Left Democrats, pledged to vote for Obama, and is no friend to MAGA.”
The News & Observer’s Danielle Battaglia explained in February that state and federal records showed Daughtry contributed a total of $2,550 to Democratic candidates since 1997. During that same timeframe, she also gave $44,000 to Republicans.
A super PAC funded by Knott’s family called the American Foundations Committee ran ads ahead of the March 5 primary charging that Daughty had given “thousands to woke Democrats,” and while this messaging wasn’t enough to stop her from outpacing Knott 27-19 on March 5, she still failed to secure the 30% she needed to win outright.
After the first round of voting, the conservative Carolina Journal surfaced a 2012 Facebook post in which Daughtry wrote, “I’m voting for Obama so I’m just saying but I do find a lot wrong with both parties.” In response, Daughtry said that, despite what she posted, she backed Mitt Romney that year.
Her campaign has also attacked Knott for serving as a federal prosecutor from 2016 through 2023, a tenure that was bookended by the Obama and Biden administrations. Knott, who told journalist Bryan Anderson that a Trump-picked U.S. Attorney turned his post from a temporary role into a full-time one, argued, “They are trying to paint me as someone who I’m not, an Obama-Biden lawyer.”
1Q Fundraising
The deadline for federal candidates to submit their first-quarter fundraising totals is April 15. We’ll publish complete charts soon after.
- MA-Sen: John Deaton (R): $300,000 raised, additional $1 million self-funded, $1.2 million cash on hand
- CA-03: Jessica Morse (D): $532,000 raised, $982,000 cash on hand
- CA-41: Ken Calvert (R-inc): $1 million raised, $2.6 million cash on hand
- MT-01: Ryan Zinke (R-inc): $1.48 million raised
- NJ-08: Rob Menendez (D-inc): $678,000 raised, $1.18 million cash on hand
- OH-13: Emilia Sykes (D-inc): $816,000 raised
- PA-10: Mike O’Brien (R): $321,000 raised
Senate
● NV-Sen: The Tarrance Group, polling on behalf of Army veteran Sam Brown and his allies at the NRSC, finds Brown with a huge 58-6 lead over 2022 secretary of state nominee Jim Marchant ahead of the June 11 Republican primary. Former diplomat Jeff Gunter, who claims he’s spending $3 million on ads, barely registers at just 3%. We haven’t seen any other recent numbers from the race to take on Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen.
● WV-Sen: Research America finds Gov. Jim Justice defeating Rep. Alex Mooney in a 66-24 landslide in the May 14 Republican primary to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. This poll, which was conducted for MetroNews and The Health Plan, a health insurance provider, is one of the few we’ve seen here all year, but no one seriously disputes the idea that Justice is the frontrunner.
Even Mooney’s allies are acting apprehensive about spending more to try to boost his longshot effort. According to the FEC’s site, the last notable pro-Mooney outside spending came in late February when a Club for Growth affiliate called Protect West Virginia Values deployed $523,000 on ads.
Governors
● NJ-Gov: Principled Veterans Fund, which the New Jersey Globe says “has connections” to Rep. Mikie Sherrill, has publicized a mid-March GQR poll that shows her leading in a hypothetical Democratic primary for governor next year:
- Rep. Mikie Sherrill: 23
- Newark Mayor Ras Baraka: 20
- Former state Senate President Steve Sweeney: 12
- Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop: 9
- Rep. Josh Gottheimer: 5
This is the first survey we’ve seen of the still-developing nomination contest to succeed the termed-out incumbent, Democrat Phil Murphy. Of the five people tested by GQR, only Baraka, Fulop, and Sweeney have announced that they’re running.
House
● CA-20: Assemblyman Vince Fong has publicized an internal from WPA Intelligence that shows him defeating Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux 46-30 in the all-Republican May 21 special election to succeed former Rep. Kevin McCarthy.
This survey, which is the first we’ve seen of the race, comes after Fong outpaced his intra-party rival by double digits in two different elections last month. The assemblyman first led Boudreaux 39-25 in the March 5 top-two primary for a full term, and by a similar 42-26 spread on March 19 in the first round of the special election. Fong, who sports endorsements from McCarthy and Donald Trump, will face off against Boudreaux one more time on Nov. 5 for a spot in the next Congress.
Judges
● WI Supreme Court: A third potential liberal candidate, Court of Appeals Judge Pedro Colón, tells WisPolitics that he’s considering a bid for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will host an open-seat race next year following progressive Justice Ann Walsh Bradley’s retirement announcement on Thursday.
Two other liberal judges, Chris Taylor and Susan Crawford, had previously expressed interest. Meanwhile, one conservative, former Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel, is already running, and another, Appeals Court Judge Maria Lazar, says she might join him. However, former Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly, who badly lost a comeback bid last year, informs WisPolitics he has “absolutely no intention of running whatsoever.”
Both sides, however, will need to be on guard against getting locked out of the general election. That’s because Wisconsin will hold an officially nonpartisan primary on Feb. 18, when all candidates will run together on a single ballot. The top two vote-getters will then advance to an April 1 general election, which means it’s possible that two liberals or two conservatives could face off in the second round of voting.
This problem is very familiar to voters in California, where deep-pocketed Democratic groups have often felt compelled to intervene in the state’s top-two primaries to ensure at least one Democrat moves on. Republicans have faced this issue less frequently, in part because California’s primary electorate tends to be more conservative than the one that shows up in November, but a similar pattern won’t necessarily hold in Wisconsin.
In fact, in last year’s Supreme Court election, a pair of progressive candidates combined for 54% of the vote in the primary—very similar to the 55% that the eventual winner, trial court Judge Janet Protaseiwicz, took in the general. But liberals were fearful of a lockout when the race began: Protasiewicz’s campaign manager, Alejandro Verdin, told “The Downballot” podcast that initial internal polls showed her a “distant third” behind two conservatives.
To avoid such a fate, establishment forces coalesced around Protasiewicz early on, which helped her earn a dominant 46% in the primary; another liberal judge took just 8%. Conservatives, meanwhile, were divided, with Kelly edging past Jennifer Dorow just 24-22 after a bitter campaign.
However, if a pair of conservatives were to square off against a trio of progressives, that would greatly increase the risk of liberals fracturing the vote and getting left out of the general election—a disaster of epic proportions that would immediately shift control of the court back to its conservative wing.
We’re not there yet, and much will transpire over the coming months. But the prospect of a top-two lockout is something progressives can’t sleep on.
Ballot Measures
● MO Ballot: St. Louis Public Radio’s Jason Rosenbaum writes that a proposed abortion rights amendment would almost certainly go before voters on Nov. 5 rather than Aug. 6, even though state law ostensibly allows GOP Gov. Mike Parson to choose between those two dates.
Rosenbaum explains that it’s “functionally impossible” for Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft’s office to verify signatures, which are due by May 5, in time to place the amendment on the August ballot. This could change if the secretary of state’s office were to check only some petitions through random sampling, but Ashcroft’s team tells Rosenbaum they don’t intend to do so.
The story notes that Parson could also set a special statewide election on a third date, though there’s no indication this idea is being seriously considered. Indeed, Parson spokesperson Johnathan Shiflett didn’t even bring up the possibility even as he downplayed the idea that the timing could largely be out of the governor’s hands.
“No decisions have been made as we have no way of knowing which petitions will be certified or not at this point,” Shiflett told Rosenbaum. Speaking of the governor, he also didn’t hesitate to add that Parson is ready to put his thumb on the scale to affect the outcome. “If he believes scheduling that measure for the August primary will best support the pro-life movement,” said Shiflett, “then he expects to have that option.”
Many conservatives prefer that the vote take place in November because they want to place their own amendment before voters on Aug. 6 to make it tougher for progressive measures to win at the ballot box.
The Republican-dominated legislature is still considering a proposal to require constitutional amendments to earn both a majority of the vote statewide and win in a majority of the state’s eight congressional districts, which Republicans drew. Because this plan is being advanced by the legislature rather than by voters, there would be no signatures to verify.
However, some Republicans would still prefer that the abortion rights amendment go before voters in the summer, even though it would only need a majority of the vote to pass, to avoid hurting GOP candidates in competitive general elections. Some have also insisted that it would be easier to beat the amendment in August because competitive Republican primaries—including the race to replace Parson as governor—will make the electorate more conservative.
Legislatures
● WI State Assembly: Wisconsin’s bipartisan Elections Commission ruled Thursday that the effort to recall Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos had failed to collect enough signatures to force a vote. Far-right activists had, however, already begun gathering petitions for another try in late March, and they have until May 28 to turn them in.
Democratic Commissioner Ann Jacobs was skeptical they’d have any more success, though. “I’m not sure what on earth they’re doing filing it in the exact same district again,” she said. “But you know, it’s up to them.” The anti-Vos effort may have other things to worry about, though, as Racine County District Attorney Patricia Hanson said last month that her office received complaints from 27 people alleging that their signatures had been forged.
The state Supreme Court has declined to clarify whether a recall election would take place under the old district lines that have since been struck down, or under the new legislative boundaries that were approved this year. If the previous map is used, recall organizers would need 6,850 valid signatures, which represents 25% of the votes cast in the old 63rd District in the 2022 race for governor. In the new 33rd District, which contains Vos’ home, about 7,200 petitions are needed.
However, that uncertainty didn’t make a difference for the first recall attempt. The commission found that only about 5,000 signatures were collected within the boundaries of the old 63rd District and about 3,100 in the new 33rd, both far short of requirements.
Former state Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman, an election conspiracy theorist who represents the recall effort, responded to the commission’s finding by characteristically tossing out more conspiracy theories about the campaign’s failure.
“It was infiltrated by outsiders from New York and Florida,” he claimed without evidence. “That’s been reported to the FBI.” Vos, for his part, last month dismissed his detractors as “whack jobs and morons.”
Poll Pile
- TX-Sen: Cygnal (R): Ted Cruz (R-inc): 45, Colin Allred (D): 36 (51-42 Trump in two-way; 46-37 Trump with third-party candidates)
- NC-Gov: Cygnal (R) for the Carolina Journal and the John Locke Foundation: Mark Robinson (R): 40, Josh Stein (D): 38, Mike Ross (L): 3 (43-39 Trump) (March: 44-39 Robinson)
Ad Roundup
- WI-Sen: Americans for Prosperity – pro-Eric Hovde (R)
- AL-02: Protect Progress – pro-Shomari Figures (D)